The ONLY Oscar Blogger, who lives in walking distance to the Kodak Theater!

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Final Oscar Predictions

I want to be honest upfront. This is the worst year I've done researching my Oscar picks since I've been writing about the Oscars on this blog. Long gone are the days of "The ONLY Oscar blogger who lives in walking distance to the Kodak Theater". Of course that is not to say that I know nothing. I don't care if I sound cocky or arrogant, but I probably know more than most people about the Oscars and where these races are heading. The biggest difference is I haven't been analyzing them for months.

My first thought regarding this year's Oscars is that there are a lot of categories that are close. There seems to be an obvious frontrunner, but this year really lacks locks. This year I don't feel as confident in a number of categories. I am content with my selections, but I could easily see another nominee win. Part of my problem could be my endless overthinking, but I have no idea how well I will do this year. I would also be surprised if someone breaks my record in the Oscar pool. I don't think this is the year to get more than 22 picks. Maybe, I'll be wrong.

While I continue to ramble I might as well also say that I haven't even seen most of the films this year. I usually get screeners from my friends in the film industry, but that didn't happen. I still need to see The Artist, which I'm going to try to do later tonight. We'll see if that happens. The best thing about predicting the Oscars is you don't have to see the films to know what is going to win. So without further ado, here are my preliminary picks for the 84th Academy Awards.

Best Picture: The Artist

Believe it or not, I haven't even seen this film. It's not that I don't want to, but I haven't had a chance to see it in the theater and screeners for this are difficult to find. Trust me, I've been asking my friends since this film is on the top of my list. It's going win. There really hasn't been an exciting Best Picture race since The Departed and Babel were going head to head in 2006. At least that is the last Best Picture race that I incorrectly predicted. Hugo could maybe pull an upset, but that seems unlikely and nothing else is going to give The Artist a problem. Who would have ever thought the Academy would award a black and white silent film its top prize in 2012?

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

I love this guy's last name. It just sounds bad ass. The French auteur is in the frontrunner. He has the DGA, which all but guarantees his win. This would be closer if Scorsese was still looking for his first Oscar. It would be fun to see Malick win, but I don't think there is enough love for Tree of Life.

Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

I was sticking with Clooney, but after the SAG awards I have to switch to Dujardin. I know I just wrote this about Scorsese, but I feel the same for Clooney. If he was still looking for his first I think he would be a much more serious contender. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but there seems to be a genuine love for The Artist. Actors make up the largest voting branch of the Academy, picked Dujardin over Clooney. You have to think repeat on Sunday.

Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help

Viola Davis put her name on the Oscar map a couple years ago for her brief, yet powerful performance in Doubt. Now, she has her chance to win an Oscar. She has done well in the precursors that it just makes sense. My only concern is Meryl Streep. Believe it or not, the woman has not won at the Oscars since Sophie's Choice in 1982. You got to think they are going to give her another one at some point. I just don't think it will be this year.

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

This is just a classic Oscar role and Plummer has been winning everything. I think this is the easiest acting category all night. If he wins, then Plummer will be the oldest acting winner ever.

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Like Plummer, Spencer has been on cruise control and looks like a lock. She could split The Help vote with Jessica Chastain, but I don't see it this year. Sometimes I think the split theory is misleading.

Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris

Everyone loves Woody even though he never shows up. That could hurt him, but I think he's going to win it this year. The field is weak. The Artist could win, but I don't think members are going to vote for a silent film.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants

Here's a chance for the Academy to give some love to this film. I love Alexander Payne and he could become a two time Oscar screenwriting winner (won for Sideways in 2004). Also, if this wins, then Dean Pelton from Community would also win an Oscar. That would be really funny.

Best Animated Feature: Rango

No Pixar movie is nominated, so a non Pixar film will win this for the first time since Happy Feet in 2006. That year it defeated Cars. The Academy just doesn't like the Cars franchise even though its merchandising is incredibly profitable. Anyway, Rango like the obvious choice. I never even heard half of the films in this category. I figured maybe Tintin would have been awarded here, but that didn't even get nominated either. It's been a weird year for this category.

Best Art Direction: Hugo

I do think the Academy will give Hugo some awards, so this is one place where they can do that. The Academy never really embraced Harry Potter. War Horse just never picked up any steam and I can't see The Artist winning this category. I do think this is where the black and white will hurt it.

Best Cinematography: Tree of Life

I feel like this is a trap pick. Lubezki should have already won an Oscar for Children of Men in 2006. He was upset when the Academy went for Pan's Labyrinth. I'm sticking with this pick since Tree of Life may get a little love and this is the only place to do it. Plus, Lubezki has done well in the precursors. I just won't be surprised if I don't hear his name. The alternative could be Hugo or maybe The Artist. I can't convince myself to pick either one, so I'm sticking with Tree of Life.

Best Costume Design: Jane Eyre

Last year I got this category wrong with The King's Speech. I tried to convinced myself that the Academy would award a good film in this category. Look at the recent history of this category and some mediocre films have won here recently. They are all period pieces, so that is what they look at when voting. That leads me to this film. I wouldn't be surprised if The Artist or Hugo wins, but I can't bring myself to make the pick especially after the recent history. The last Best Picture nominee to win this award was The Aviator in 2004.

Best Documentary - Feature: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

The best documentary I saw all year, How to Die in Oregon, wasn't nominated this year since I don't believe it qualified. I saw it at Sundance for its world premiere and I highly recommend it. Anyway, I have no idea what is going to win here. This is one of the five categories where members need to attend special screenings to even vote in this category (Doc - Short Subject, Foreign Language, Animated Short, and Live Action Short are the others). That is part of the reason why people never really know how this will go. I heard from a friend that Undefeated was really good, but I have heard more buzz on Paradise Lost 3. That is why I'm going with it.

Best Documentary - Short Subject: Saving Face

The synopsis of this film seems the most powerful and engaging. It is about a Pakistani plastic surgeon who performs face reconstructive surgery on survivors of acid violence. Really any of these films could win. I'm sure they are all great, so consider it a crapshoot.

Best Film Editing: The Artist

When in doubt, pick the Best Picture winner to win this category. Nothing really stands out to me, so that is my logic behind this pick.

Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation

I haven't seen this film, but everyone loves it. There have been upsets in this category in the past. Pan's Labyrinth and Amelie lost here. I have been a little lucky with this category in the past. Yes, I picked Departures a couple years ago, which helped me win a lot of Oscar pools that year. The reason why I'm sticking with this film is there seems to be enough support. A Separation was even nominated for Best Original Screenplay. The alternate seems to be In Darkness, but I haven't heard enough buzz to change my mind.

Best Makeup: The Iron Lady

All three of the nominees here don't really impress me that much. I'm going with making Meryl Streep like Margaret Thatcher. Maybe Harry Potter steals one here.

Best Original Score: The Artist

This has to win here, right? It just makes sense since the music is so important in a film without dialogue.

Best Original Song: "Man or Muppet" from The Muppets

Flip a coin. I'm going with The Muppets since I think it would be fun to give it an Oscar. This category is somewhat of a joke this year. I think the Academy may have to look at their nominating process for Best Original Song. At least nominate three songs. Two nominees looks stupid.

Best Short - Animated: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris

I'm just picking the film with the longest title. I'm kidding. I have heard this is a really well done short and it seems to be the popular choice. The alternate may be La Luna, but history has not been kind to Pixar in this category. I have no idea why, but it seems to never win.

Best Short - Live Action: Tuba Atlantic

I have no idea about this category. I haven't heard of one film being the popular choice. It is all over the map. I am going with this film since I like the title and the film is from Norway. I'm hoping it will stand out and sneak in for the win.

Best Sound Editing: Hugo

I could see the sound categories going Hugo for both, War Horse for both, or it could split. I would rather just pick the same film for both and attempt to get at least one category right. You never know what is going to happen. I feel like this is another chance for the Academy to give Hugo some love. The upset would be if Transformers won, but as we learned 2007 the Academy doesn't like Transformers.

Best Sound Mixing: Hugo

To keep with my strategy of going for the same film for both sound categories, I'm sticking with Hugo here. It makes sense and I would rather go all in with Hugo than War Horse.

Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

This deserves to win, but will it? Hugo could win here, but I think they will go for those dirty apes. Plus, everyone loves Andy Serkis and all the great work he does.

There you have it. My final predictions for the 84th Academy Awards. I'll try to post some reaction to the results and thoughts on the show a day or two after the Oscars. I'm having my annual Oscar party, so I may have to rewatch the show again. We drink a lot of wine and it's loud, so I miss a lot. I do think the show will be better than last year's and I'm curious how well Billy Crystal will be. I don't think he'll be the savior some people expect, but he's reliable. Overall, it should be a fun night.

1 comment:

KickerOffender said...

Most of this movies really deserve to win the Oscar so it's not surprise.