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Sunday, January 24, 2010

SAG Thoughts

The SAG awards were last night. Has anything really changed? The consensus seems to be Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress are getting into lock territory. The question remains whether Sandra Bullock can win an Oscar or if the Academy will go for Meryl Streep. Carey Mulligan seems to be sadly out of the equation. Streep is the most nominated actress of all time, but she hasn't won an Oscar in what seems like forever. It was Sophie's Choice in 1982 for Best Actress. I think that is something that definitely has to be considered as the Academy may want to give her another one. Especially in a year with not a real strong female lead performance. Bullock is well liked within Hollywood, but thinking that Sandra Bullock can win an Oscar is like thinking Eddie Murphy could win one a few years back with Dreamgirls (he lost to Alan Arkin). That's how I feel at least.

Inglourious Basterds winning Best Ensemble was expected, but let's not forget that both Avatar and Up in the Air were not nominated for this award. That means Basterds won without beating two of its toughest competition. I feel like that win last night was not as big as it could have been. Not saying Basterds can't win Best Picture in March, but a win at the PGA tonight would be much bigger for the film's chances.

PGA gives out their top prize tonight. I'll try to post something later tonight or tomorrow. Avatar seems to be the frontrunner.

Monday, January 18, 2010

BFCA, Golden Globe Thoughts

As I wrote the other day, I worked through the Golden Globes. I taped them, but due to my roommate continually watching Boston Legal, I haven't been able to watch them yet. As for the BFCA, I didn't tape them. Here's some thoughts on how these awards could influence the Oscars.

- Avatar winning Best Drama was expected and if this film wins the PGA and DGA, then it has to be the frontrunner for Best Picture at the Oscars. While the story was nothing special, it's such a groundbreaking film that it's hard not to recognize it.

- The Hangover winning was surprising as I thought the comedy was too raunchy to win. I'm not complaining, but I would have never predicted it. Could it be one of the 10 for Best Picture at the Oscars? Doubtful.

- The Hurt Locker run on top could be coming to an end. If it struggles at the guilds, then it could spell trouble. Only time will tell.

- James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow are going to battling for Best Director. Bigelow won the BFCA, but Cameron won the Globe. The DGA tiebreaker is huge as the DGA almost always predicts the Best Director Oscar.

- Jeff Bridges is quickly becoming the frontrunner for Best Actor. Everyone loves George Clooney, but Jeff Bridges has been around for years. Hollywood seems like they want to award him. SAG will be huge.

- Best Actress is becoming very confusing. Is Sandra Bullock really going to be a serious threat to win Best Actress. She tied with Streep for the BFCA and won the Globe. I thought Carey Mulligan would do better, but it seems like Meryl Streep will be Bullock's biggest competition. Like the Best Actor race, SAG will be huge.

- Both supporting races seem to be in the bag. Both Mo'Nique and Christopher Waltz are winning everything and have to the be the frontrunners. Can they be stopped on their way to the Oscars? I don't think so.

Both these award shows can be deceiving. We're now getting ready to enter the guild award phase, which is far more accurate as many members of the guilds are also members of the academy. That is not the case with the critics groups and the Hollywood Foreign press.

I'm sadly working during the SAG awards, but I'm changing jobs at the end of the month. That translates me having weekends free and hopefully getting more time to cover the Oscars.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Critics Choice and Golden Globes Thoughts

If there's one good thing about the Oscars in March this year, it's that I'll have time to redeem myself and my lack of blogging this season. Honestly, it's just that life is busier than usual for me right now. I've just got so much going on right now that I don't have enough time to blog. Actually the last two Oscar seasons I've been unemployed and it made being an Oscar blogger my full time free job. I've written this probably a few times this season, but I apologize. I'm going to try to do my best especially once Oscar nominations are announced in early February.

As for the Critics Choice awards, which are tonight and the Golden Globes, which are Sunday, I'll be posting simply reactions. I'm actually working through both events, so there will be no live blog. Here's just a few thoughts concerning both award shows.

BFCA (Critics Choice) Thoughts:
- I expect The Hurt Locker to do well here. It's the critics darling and is a serious Oscar contender. It's actually one of the few big contenders I haven't seen yet. The others being Invictus and Precious. I still question whether a film like this can win the top prize at the Oscars, but a win here will definitely present it to the masses as this is a televised awards show.

- Avatar and Up in the Air could struggle here, but it will not be the end of the world for either film. I could easily see Clooney lose Best Actor to Jeff Bridges as Bridges is more of a critics friendly performance.

- I have no idea who is going to win Best Actress. I'm leaning towards Carey Mulligan. Call it a hunch.

Quick Predix:
Best Picture - The Hurt Locker
Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor - Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Actress - Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor - Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Cast - Inglourious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay - Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay - Inglourious Basterds

Golden Globe Thoughts:

- Avatar should show up at these awards. I'm going to try to do an updated Oscar predictions post shortly after the Globes and Avatar may land in the top position. While the Globes aren't the best Oscar predictor, I just think this film is too much of an achievement not to make a major splash. The Globes could be the first step.

- The musical/comedy winner is a tough one. I like (500) Days the best, but can it win something like this? I say no. Like many years the winner of this award is usually not a serious Oscar contender. It's almost like a throwaway prize.

- The Best Director should award season is going to be fun to watch. Why? James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow were married and are now divorced. I'm not sure if they are on good terms, but it's going to be fun especially if they go back and forth on victories. I'm picking Cameron at the Globes.

- Clooney should bounce back after the BFCA and win Best Actor. Up in the Air should do better in general. The drama prize is so tough this year. If it wins on Sunday night, then this film makes a big statement going into the guild awards.

- I'm sticking with Mulligan for Best Actress. It's the Hollywood Foreign Press and this is an English film. I think they'll eat it up and how can you not love Carey Mulligan?

- Meryl Streep should win a Globe, but what role will it be? I'm guessing Julie & Julia. Let's just hope she doesn't cancel herself out.

- Mo'Nique should also benefit from Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick both getting nominated. This could be a problem for the Up in the Air girls come Oscar time. Mo'Nique was probably the frontrunner anyway, but her path to Oscar glory gets easier with them both being nominated. At the Globes we'll find out if this is the case. I think it will be.

Quick Predix:
Best Picture, Drama - Avatar
Best Picture, Musical/Comedy - Julie & Julia
Best Director - James Cameron, Avatar
Best Actor, Drama - George Clooney, Up in the Air
Best Actor, Musical/Comedy - Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Best Actress, Drama - Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Actress, Musical/Comedy - Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Best Supporting Actor - Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Screenplay - Inglourious Basterds