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Saturday, March 6, 2010

Final Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
Who Will Win: Avatar
Who Should Win: Avatar
Who I Want to Win: Avatar
Thoughts: Between ten nominees and the preferential ballot, this has turned into a very interesting roller coaster this season. Come Sunday I honestly believe it will come down to only two films: Avatar and The Hurt Locker. It's nothing against Basterds, Up in the Air, Precious, etc., but these are the two films everyone is talking about. Harvey Weinstein says he is going to get Basterds over the top. He also said that about The Reader last year. He did it once with Shakespeare in Love, but I just don't see him doing it again this year. I love Quentin's film, but I just don't see it happening.

The Hurt Locker has received great support from the guilds, but the guilds aren't always right. If there is one thing I've learned about the Academy, it's they mostly don't give a damn about what else has happened. Ask Brokeback Mountain and they will tell you it sucks. For some reason, I don't see them embracing Hurt Locker at the end of the day for the top prize. It may very well receive the most 1st place votes, but I still think Avatar is in better position to capitalize on 2nd place votes.

I don't know why, but I just have a feeling the word "Avatar" is going to be said when they open the last envelope on Sunday night. I think the preferential ballot helps this film a lot. I think the $700 million helps a lot. I think the older members of the Academy are going to think it is an amazing film. Every so often, the Academy has an opportunity to award a film that is groundbreaking. Whether the film does it visually or socially, the Academy should try to embrace those rare opportunities. They failed four years ago with Brokeback Mountain. Will they fail again with Avatar? The story is not original, but it is an experience and a monumental achievement in filmmaking. It is breathtaking especially if you watch it in IMAX 3D. So what if Avatar doesn't have any acting nominations? Or a screenplay nod? Or struggled at the guilds? No one thought it would break the box office record. It did. If I'm going down on Sunday night, I'm going down with this film. Avatar for the win.

Best Director
Who Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Who Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Who I Want to Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Thoughts: It's amazing that a woman has never won a Best Directing Oscar. This should be the first. It is deserving too. This film is intense and suspenseful. It is gritty and real. Bigelow also has the DGA, so I feel like this is a safe pick.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Who Should Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Who I Want to Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Thoughts: First Morgan Freeman was the frontrunner over the summer. Then, it was George Clooney in the fall. Now, Jeff Bridges has been on a roll. He has been around for years and is from a great Hollywood family. Everyone is pulling for him and he will get rewarded for a great role in a film more people need to see. This is lock.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Who Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Who I Want to Win: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Thoughts: I could easily see this being one of the shockers on Oscar night. Bullock has done well this season, but is the Academy going to give it to her? This just reminds me of 2006 with Eddie Murphy. Sidibe gave an amazing performance in Precious, but I just don't see her pulling votes from Sandra or Meryl. That was just an intense role. Still, I have to pull for my girl, Carey Mulligan who I fell in love with this year.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Who I Want to Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Thoughts: No one is beating Waltz. He was great in this film and role. Hopefully he prepared a good speech. Haha.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Mo'Nique, Precious
Who Should Win: Mo'Nique, Precious
Who I Want to Win: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Thoughts: Like the other supporting race, this one is all over. Mo'Nique has won everything and she should win the Oscar. I'm just glad that Anna Kendrick got some love this year. I knew she was going places as soon as I saw Rocket Science a few years ago. Her future is definitely bright.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Who Should Win: Inglourious Basterds<
Who I Want to Win: Inglourious Basterds<
Thoughts: This is arguably Tarantino's best script. I just love the dialogue in it. He's an incredible writer. He will probably lose Best Picture, but I just feel like he can beat Mark Boal here. Let us also not forget that while Boal won the WGA, he didn't have to face Quentin. Why? He's not in the guild.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Up in the Air
Who Should Win: Up in the Air
Who I Want to Win: Up in the Air
Thoughts: Like Basterds, I see this film winning something. This feels like the best shot for Jason Reitman.

Best Animated Feature
Who Will Win: Up
Who Should Win: Up
Who I Want to Win: Up
Thoughts: As much as I like Fantastic Mr. Fox, I can't deny how great Up is. I personally liked this better than WALL-E. Although, I always follow that with WALL-E is a better film. Pixar should have this one in the bag yet again.

Best Art Direction
Who Will Win: Avatar
Who Should Win: Avatar
Who I Want to Win: Avatar
Thoughts: This is one category Avatar should easily win. The world they create is unbelievable and I don't know how you don't award it.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Avatar
Who Should Win: The White Ribbon
Who I Want to Win: The White Ribbon
Thoughts: This is a tough category to predict. I haven't even seen The White Ribbon, but I have seen a few clips. It's beautiful and it's black and white. It won the ASC, but I don't think enough members have seen it. The Hurt Locker and Avatar seem to be neck and neck. I just look at The Hurt Locker and think it's too gritty. Kind of reminds me of Children of Men, which lost to a more conventional and fantasy film, Pan's Labyrinth. I think this could very well happen this year and that should open the door for Avatar.

Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: The Young Victoria
Who Should Win: The Young Victoria
Who I Want to Win: The Young Victoria
Thoughts: It's all about period films in this category. Victoria won the CDG and seems to be the popular choice here.

Best Documentary - Feature
Who Will Win: The Cove
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: The Cove has been the popular choice here for a while. Just remember only a small portion of the Academy votes on this, which explains upsets in this category. Though it seems like it should still pull through. I don't see a solid alternative.

Best Documentary - Short
Who Will Win: The Last Truck
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: This is my least favorite category. Why? I always get it wrong, so don't pick the same film as me. I think it is between The Last Truck and China's Unnatural Disaster. I am leaning towards Last Truck since I hope it hits home with voters more. I could be completely wrong. I also think there's a chance it could go to Music by Prudence. This category is a crapshoot. Again it's another that requires members attend a special screening to vote.

Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Who Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Who I Want to Win: The Hurt Locker
Thoughts: The Hurt Locker should have this one wrapped up unless the Academy just goes crazy for Avatar.

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: The Secret in their Eyes
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: I don't see The White Ribbon winning this. I see it either going to A Prophet or The Secret in their Eyes. I'm going with Secret since I heard it went over well within the Academy screening. Again, another category that requires you to attend special screenings to vote. This explains why films such as Amelie and Pan's Labyrinth have lost in the past.

Best Makeup
Who Will Win: Star Trek
Who Should Win: Star Trek
Who I Want to Win: Star Trek
Thoughts: Star Trek should easily win this. The makeup for some of the aliens is always cool and it's more popular than the other two nominees.

Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Up
Who Should Win: Up
Who I Want to Win: Up
Thoughts: The score in Up is really good and it sets the tone for the entire film. It should win.

Best Original Song
Who Will Win: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart
Who Should Win: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart
Who I Want to Win: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart
Thoughts: This song is kinda depressing, but it's damn good. The Disney songs should cancel each other out to give this to Crazy Heart.

Best Short - Animated
Who Will Win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: This is a Wallace and Gromit film. Nick Park does extremely well at the Oscars, so it has to be the favorite. The only way it loses is if people want to spread the wealth and give it to another filmmaker.

Best Short - Live Action
Who Will Win: The Door
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: This is a category I have no idea really, but I've been hearing good things about The Door. The spoiler here could be Kavi.

Best Sound Mixing
Who Will Win: Avatar
Who Should Win: Avatar
Who I Want to Win: Avatar
Thoughts: I'm going with Avatar, but I could see The Hurt Locker winning this. Last year, Slumdog won this category. Avatar just can't be overlooked in any of the tech categories.

Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Avatar
Who Should Win: Avatar
Who I Want to Win: Avatar
Thoughts: In regards to the sound categories, this is a much safer bet. I can't see Avatar losing this unless the Academy went Hurt Locker crazy, which is possible. The betting man has to go with Avatar.

Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Avatar
Who Should Win: Avatar
Who I Want to Win: Avatar
Thoughts: If Avatar is only going to win one Oscar, then this is it. I would be absolutely shocked if it lost here considering how groundbreaking the visual effects were.

*I do reserve the right to change any of these predictions. If that happens, I will notify you through this blog.

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