The ONLY Oscar Blogger, who lives in walking distance to the Kodak Theater!

Saturday, January 31, 2009

31 Days of Oscar


I never take full advantage of this great marathon, but wanted to remind my loyal readers that TCM is starting their annual 31 Days of Oscar today (February 1st). This is a great month of movies since they are commercial free and some of the best films ever made. It's even better if you have a DVR (I'm poor and sadly don't at the moment), so you can record a bunch of classic films and watch them at your leisure.

Here's the LINK!

Boyle Wins DGA

Since I'm not really doing anything tonight, I figure I would let everyone know that Danny Boyle has just won the DGA. No surprise there. This should give him a clear path to the Oscar.

Game, set, match.

Oscar Update: You Gotta Love It

You know what I love most about the Oscars?  It's when races seem more or less over, yet people still find some far fetched reason they aren't.  You don't need to look any further than my last Oscar post to realize that I'm not a huge Slumdog fan.  Though, I've just accepted its fate and concluded the Best Picture race is over.

Any time a film dominates like this, it's common for there to be some backlash.  People get sick of it.  They got sick of Brokeback and No Country in recent years.  I just don't really see how this race changes.  If Slumdog loses the DGA tonight, then maybe a little.  Though, I feel like this is in the bag.  The only real race left out of the major categories is probably Best Supporting Actress.

Let's take a look at some updated Oscar rankings plus a full list of my current picks for all 24 categories...

* Films I've seen.

Best Picture
1. (1) *Slumdog Millionaire
2. (2) *The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. (4) *Milk
4. (3) *The Reader
5. (5) *Frost/Nixon

I finally saw Button this week.  I don't think it's as horrible as some people say, but the comparisons to Forrest Gump are evident.  This is also not Fincher's best.  Maybe, people should stop trying to make movies to win Oscars and just focus on making good movies.  I think Button is a good example of this.

There is talk of Milk gaining some steam.  It's possible, but I don't think it will be enough.  Could Slumdog and Button split the vote allowing Milk to win?  I don't see it, but I would be happy if that happened.

The only really dead horse in this race seems to be Frost/Nixon.  I actually like this film, but it seems to lack a passionate fanbase.

Best Director
1. (1) *Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. (2) *David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. (4) *Gus Van Sant, Milk
4. (3) *Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
5. (5) *Stephen Daldrey, The Reader

This race really won't change much unless either Fincher or Van Sant win the DGA.  The DGA is the best indicator at predicting its award.  It almost always matches up with the Oscar, so we should know more after tonight.

Best Actor
1. (1) *Sean Penn, Milk
2. (2) *Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. (3) *Frank Langhella, Frost/Nixon
4. (4) *Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. (5) *Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I've seen all the nominees now and my opinion still hasn't changed.  Sean Penn is still the man to beat.  I've been with him since the beginning.  Unless I hear massive support for either Rourke or Langella, then I will continue to believe he will win.

I do have to say that Richard Jenkins was very strong in The Visitor, which is a solid indie film about post 9/11 New York.  Definitely worth checking out.

The only thing to think about is Frank Langella.  I think he is a bit of a wild card here.  He's an older actor, who portrayed President Nixon.  There's a lot of old members of the Academy that remember what he did to this country.  My only reason to not buy this is that Langella has gained absolutely no traction in this race.

Best Actress
1. (1) *Kate Winslet, The Reader
2. (2) *Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. (3) *Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4. (4) Melissa Leo, Frozen River
5. (5) *Angelina Jolie, Changeling

This is Kate Winslet's year.  It just is.  I don't see this race changing.  I won't say locked since that can be a dirty word, but she's not going to lose on Oscar night.

Best Supporting Actor
1. (1) *Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. (2) *Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
3. (3) *Josh Brolin, Milk
4. (4) *Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
5. (5) *Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

Like the above race, I don't see this one changing much.  Heath Ledger is not going to lose.  Brolin and Downey Jr. will have their chance in the future.  I hope they both get it as they are two of the finest working actors today.

Best Supporting Actress
1. (1) *Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. (2) *Viola Davis, Doubt
3. (4) *Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler, Amy Adams, Doubt
4. (3) *Amy Adams, Doubt
5. (5) *Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Finally, a race.  This race is going to give me many restless nights.  I don't know what to do.  I still have Cruz in the top slot, but watch out for Viola Davis.  I have this feeling that she is closing in on this.  I may be changing my pick soon.

I look at Davis' scenes.  They are money scenes that really change the dynamic of the film.  For a mother to basically not care if her son is molested is a powerful statement.  It's shocking and Oscar worthy.

It's going to be tight.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Original Screenplay: Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Costume Design: The Duchess
Best Documentary - Feature: Man on Wire
Best Documentary - Short Subject: The Witness, From the Balcony of Room 306
Best Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
Best Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Best Short - Animated: Presto
Best Short - Live Action: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Best Sound Editing: WALL-E
Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

It's Coming

Who will become an Oscar legend?

Monday, January 26, 2009

Oscar Update: Slumdog on Cruise Control

Over the weekend, we saw both the PGA and SAG hand out their awards. Surprise, surprise. Slumdog Millionaire took home both awards. While the PGA was expected, the SAG is just downright wrong. I'm at the point in this season where I can confidently say that I'm sick of this film. Yes, I said it. It's just getting ridiculous. This race is ova (that's right I'm using my Boston accent)!

Here's the thing, I don't hate this film. I enjoyed it in the cinema, but it's extremely overrated in my opinion. For it to possibly sweep Best Picture at the major guilds (DGA, PGA, SAG, and WGA), Globes, NBR, BAFTA, a number of critic groups, and the Oscars is unfortunate. Not even No Country or Brokeback (both films dominated up to the Oscars) pulled off that feat. No Country lost the Globe and BAFTA. Brokeback lost SAG.

I just look at last night and to say Slumdog was the best ensemble is just downright wrong. I want someone to tell me with a straight face that this film's ensemble was better than either Milk or Doubt. Hell, even The Dark Knight had a stronger ensemble and it was not nominated. Do people realize that this film did not get one acting Oscar nomination? SAG should realize that members vote on the best film rather than best ensemble. Just simply change the name of the award and it will probably lessen the outbursts from people like me and a bunch of other annoyed awards enthusiasts.

Yes, 2008 was a weaker year for films, but I feel like some of the love should have been spread. People are going to look back on this film 20 years from now and think Slumdog is the greatest movie ever made considering how many awards it won. Then, when the credits roll most people are going to wonder what the hell we were all thinking. End rant.

Let's take a look at some updated Oscar rankings plus a full list of my current picks for all 24 categories...

* Films I've seen.

Best Picture
1. (1) *Slumdog Millionaire
2. (2) The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. (5) *The Reader
4. (3) *Milk
5. (4) *Frost/Nixon

This race is unofficially over. It's somewhat pointless to even write about it anymore unless Slumdog manages to lose the DGA, WGA, or BAFTA. The only difference in this race is bumping The Reader up. Why? Harvey Weinstein. He stole the Oscar in '98 with Shakespeare over Private Ryan. Will he do it again? Doubtful, never underestimate his power.

Best Director
1. (1) *Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. (2) David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. (3) *Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
4. (4) *Gus Van Sant, Milk
5. (5) *Stephen Daldrey, The Reader

Like the above race not much should really change. I don't see anyone knocking off Boyle at this point. He should cruise to the DGA and the DGA is the best precursor at predicting the Best Directing Oscar. It almost always matches up.

Best Actor
1. (1) *Sean Penn, Milk
2. (2) *Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. (3) *Frank Langhella, Frost/Nixon
4. (4) Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. (5) Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Penn won the SAG last night and is back in the lead. I have been picking him to win since the beginning. Yeah the Globes picked Rourke, but Penn has a bad history with the Globes. This is still a two man race and Penn should be standing the podium in a month.

Best Actress
1. (1) *Kate Winslet, The Reader
2. (2) *Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. (3) *Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4. (4) Melissa Leo, Frozen River
5. (5) Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Meryl won the SAG last night. Though, Kate should still be the frontrunner. Here's the thing about both actress races this year. They are out of whack due to Winslet being nominated for The Reader as supportng this entire season. Then, the Oscars puts it in lead. As I wrote last week, the problem is that there is nothing to really compare.

I feel like a hidden agenda of the Academy this year is going to be award Winslet and I see this being her moment. The only interesting thing to consider is that Meryl Streep has not won an Oscar in almost 25 years. Yeah, she's been nominated like a bunch since then, but no wins. If Doubt is smart, then the should drive that into voter's heads. If they do that effectively, I think this could really turn into a tight race between two of the best actresses alive today.

Best Supporting Actor
1. (1) *Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. (2) *Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
3. (3) *Josh Brolin, Milk
4. (5) *Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
5. (4) *Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

Heath Ledger's sweep of this category is somewhat phenomenal. I can't remember anything like it. It's amazing to think he has been dead for over a year now and is still riding this wave.

I was thinking last night if anything would be any different if Ledger were alive. I figure there wouldn't be standing ovations every time he won, but would he swept this category if he were still alive? We'll never know, but it's something to ponder.

As nice and emotional as this ride has been, I find it disappointing that many people are now only realizing how talented he was after he died. A premature death sadly adds to your legend. It presents a series of what if's. When his name is announced in a month, the what if's will continue and his legend will grow even more.

Best Supporting Actress
1. (1) *Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. (2) *Viola Davis, Doubt
3. (4) *Amy Adams, Doubt
4. (5) *Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
5. (3) Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Well, Kate Winslet won the SAG as expected, so that really doesn't help us in this category. I'm sticking with Cruz in this category. Though, the Doubt girls (Davis and Adams) could pull this off. I like Cruz also because she has Harvey Weinstein behind her. Though, this film wasn't received as well with the Academy. They may want to give Doubt something for its fine acting. This could be the best opportunity for that. I guess what I'm indirectly writing is I need a little more time, but for the moment I'll stick with Penelope.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Original Screenplay: Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Costume Design: The Duchess
Best Documentary - Feature: Man on Wire
Best Documentary - Short Subject: The Witness, From the Balcony of Room 306
Best Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
Best Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Best Short - Animated: Presto
Best Short - Live Action: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Best Sound Editing: WALL-E
Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Thursday, January 22, 2009

First Thoughts on Oscar Nominations

Welcome to the 2008 Academy Awards. Excited?! Maybe a little? With a month to go there is a lot to talk about, so let's not waste any time.

First things first, times really never change with the Academy. Then again, I don't think these nominations will ever please everyone. Yet, some people get so mad and for what? There's always something that makes you scratch your head. I think that is party of the Oscars beauty. They really don't care what anyone thinks.

I didn't get the number correct, but as expected Benjamin Button topped the nominations with a total of 13 (I predicted 11). Slumdog came in second with a total of 10 (too much in my opinion). Should be interesting to see who takes the most in on Oscar night. No film has won more than five Oscars since Return of the King back at the 2003 Oscars.

Let's take a look at some of the major categories...

* Means I have seen film.

Best Picture:
1. *Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. *Milk
4. *Frost/Nixon
5. *The Reader

Analysis:
I know some people are complaining about The Dark Knight and WALL-E, but I'm not going to sit and cry about it. Yeah, it would have been nice to see them nominated, but the Academy was and still is old school. The surprise on this list is definitely The Reader, but I'm not going to lie, I liked this film. I thought it was well done and will be on my top ten list. While Slumdog is the favorite, I wouldn't say this race is over. Though, I'm still having a hard time trying to convince myself the other four films have a chance.

I think the nail in the coffin will be if Slumdog wins SAG. It has no right to win SAG and if it does, then that will prove the support for this film is so strong that it will be unbeatable. Of course, Crash won the SAG back in 2005 and it ended up giving it enough momentum to upset Brokeback. One of these four other nominees will need to do something very similar. I still look to Button or to a lesser extent Milk.

Don't forget that Button led the nominations and 13 is a lot. This film is well represented across the board. It also has a couple acting nominations which are important. Actors make up the largest branch of the Academy. Slumdog doesn't have any acting nominations and if it wins on February 22nd, then it will be the first to pull off the feat since Return of the King.

Best Director
1. *Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. *Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
4. *Gus Van Sant, Milk
5. *Stephen Daldry, The Reader

Analysis:
The biggest complaint in this list is no Chris Nolan. I feel for the guy, but nothing takes away the fact that the guy directed a 500 million dollar movie. It should also be noted that Stephen Daldry has directed three films and he has been nominated for every one. That is something and a true testament to him.

Looking at this race, it's hard to pick against Boyle. Months ago, I thought Fincher was going to run away with this. He's been around for a while and has done some phenomenal films. Though, he has been shut out this whole season by Boyle. The DGA almost always matches up with the Oscar in this category, so I expect that trend to continue.

I see Howard, Van Sant, and Daldry simply along for the ride. I just don't see them figuring into the equation. This should be unofficially locked up after the DGA awards.

Best Actor
1. *Sean Penn, Milk
2. *Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. *Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Analysis:
For me this is the hardest race to choose maybe of the whole night. Not on it being difficult, but for the reason that I simply love both Penn and Rourke's performance. They are both probably their best performances of their careers. I was emotionally moved by the both of them. As a result, Milk and The Wrestler are my two favorite films of the year (which one will be number 1 will be unknown until I release my top 10 on 2/21/09).

I'm going with Penn for the simple reason that I think it will have more support. The Wrestler was virtually shut out of the Oscars (Bruce didn't even get nominated). Plus, I think the fact that Rourke plays a wrestler will hurt him, which is unfair. Penn plays a real person and the Academy loves biopics. Four out of the last six winners have been based on real people. I would say the only thing that could hurt Penn is that he recently won in 2003 for Mystic River. The Academy may want to spread the love. Plus, Rourke has resurrected his career, which is always a great story to reward.

Unless there is a late surge, I see Langella, Jenkins, and Pitt not really factoring in on this race.

Best Actress
1. *Kate Winslet, The Reader
2. *Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. *Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4. Melissa Leo, Frozen River
5. Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Analysis:
Well, the Academy really threw a curveball when they nominated Winslet for The Reader not Revolutionary. The studio was campaigning for her role in The Reader to go supporting, but it didn't happen. Poor Revolutionary as it was literally shut out of the Oscars. In a way, it is probably best for Winslet. If she wants to win, then she is going to need to go with her best role. And I think this is going to be her year.

Streep and Hathaway could give her a run for her money, but I don't see it. I've said this before, but Streep has her Oscars and Hathaway is too young. If she continues to work hard, then she will be rewarded down the road. This should make Kate the favorite.

The other two nominees were a bit surprising to me. I haven't seen either performance. Both have been talked about, but other performances such as Blanchett in Button and Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky were getting more attention. It just seems like they are along for the ride.

Best Supporting Actor
1. *Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. *Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
3. *Josh Brolin, Milk
4. *Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
5. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Analysis:
This is still one of the most fascinating races this year. Watching Ledger dominate the awards season even though he has been gone for a year is one for the ages. A win on Oscar night could make for one of the show's greatest moments. It feels like this whole town is behind him and it would be shocking if he were to lose. Not only does he give one of the best performances of the decade, but the competition is relatively weak. I've been saying this for some time, who is going to beat him? I look at Hoffman and while his performance in Doubt is great it still does not stack up well against Ledger.

The only way Hoffman, Brolin, Downey Jr., or Shannon can win is if people simply don't want to give it to someone who has been dead for 13 months on the night of the Oscars. A lot of people use the James Dean example, but times have changed. James Dean didn't have the media to back him or build his support. I think the media has played a part in this quest. I also really think that if Ledger were still alive there is a good chance that this category would be locked by now. The death factor makes this a little shaky, but it seems like a safe bet that Heath Ledger will join Peter Finch as the second posthumous major category Oscar winner.

Best Supporting Actress
1. *Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. *Viola Davis, Doubt
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. *Amy Adams, Doubt
5. *Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Analysis:
This whole race changed this morning when everyone found out that Kate Winslet's performance in The Reader was moved to lead. Also, I am sure Penelope Cruz is extremely happy. I mean all the nominees are happy Kate is out of the race, but Penelope has jumped up to frontrunner. The biggest problem with predicting this race now is that Winslet has been in every major supporting actress race this year. If Winslet wins the SAG in this category (she won the Globe), then it will be really hard to determine a true frontrunner.

People seem to think Cruz and I agree with them, but I think this could maybe be the toughest major category of the night to predict. I think Viola Davis has to be taken seriously, but she could possibly split with Adams. This category is a mess and I'm getting a headache thinking about it.

Other Quick Thoughts:
- Bruce Springsteen getting shut out of the song category was maybe the biggest diss of the day. This really opens up the song category. My great success at picking that category could be in jeopardy.
- Speaking of the song category, I was hoping Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino song would get nominated for the small chance that Clint would perform it on Oscar night. No such luck.
- I don't have too many complaints this year. Unlike last year where I was somewhat emotionally involved with a film (There Will Be Blood), I feel very neutral.

I'll have more thoughts probably after the SAG awards this weekend. Also, be on the lookout for the 2nd annual Oscar contest. THERE WILL BE BLOOD and a PRIZE (Before everyone asks I'm not giving away Blood on dvd. I just felt like typing that, but there will really be a prize!).

To view the complete nominations click HERE!

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

The Night Before Oscar Nominations

I know, I know. Honestly though, when very few or should I say if anyone reads this blog, I apologize for the lack of updates. Taking care of some personal issues at the moment that could make 2009 a very life changing year for me.

I did want to quickly share some quick thoughts on the major six categories as tomorrow at 5:00 a.m., nominations will be announced. I know that the ranking system really doesn't matter for tomorrow, but I am simply ranking the films on strength of getting a nomination.

So without further ado, here are my final nomination predictions...



Note: * means I've seen the film.



Picture
1. *Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

3. *Milk
4. *Frost/Nixon

5. *The Dark Knight


It's not my favorite film of the year and I can honestly see this film being forgotten in 10 years, but Slumdog is real strong right now. 2009 is a year of hope and this film personifies that.

I still need to see Button, but it probably has the best chance to knock Slumdog out. This is another reason why Slumdog is so strong. It has a lot to do with weak competition.

Milk and Frost/Nixon seem to be along for the ride. I actually enjoyed both these films over Slumdog, but what do I know?

This last spot is going to The Dark Knight. Revolutionary is dead. Torino is too weak. The Wrestler just doesn't have the support. Oh, and I simply just don't buy WALL-E sneaking in.  Plus, the Oscars needs The Dark Knight. I guarantee more nominations for this film will boast ratings. Hell, the film made half a billion dollars.

It knows how to attract an audience.

Director
1. *Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. *Gus Van Sant, Milk
4. *Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
5. *Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

These five got nominated for the DGA. I feel really good about them all getting the Oscar nod. Maybe Clint sneaks in, but I don't see it. Regardless, Boyle controls this race.

Actor
1. *Sean Penn, Milk

2. *Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. *Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
4. *Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

This is a two man race between Penn and Rourke. Those are locks. The bigger question now is who will join them? I like Langella a lot. He should be safe. Clint is loved by the Academy, so that is why I like him. The last spot I'm going with Leo. This could not happening depending on Road's support. Otherwise, I look to either Pitt or Jenkins.


Actress

1. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

2. *Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. *Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4. Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Kate and Meryl are looking pretty right now. Anne is also looking good, but I see her playing second fiddle to the two more well established actresses. Cate is no where as strong as she was a couple months ago, but she should still rack up another nomination. Though, I don't see her really figuring in on this race. This last spot is real tough. I'm going with Sally. She won the Globe and I think that may give her a slight edge. Otherwise, you have to look at either Melissa Leo or Kristin Scott Thomas. It's a tough call.

Supporting Actor

1. *Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

2. *Josh Brolin, Milk

3. *Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

4. *Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

5. *Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

I feel really confident about this lineup. I've seen all the performances and they are all good in different ways. Downey Jr. is probably the most likely to get bumped, but who is really going to take his spot? Maybe James Franco or Michael Shannon. I just don't see it. The bigger question in this race is about Ledger, but I'll write about that after the official nominations have been announced.


Supporting Actress

1. *Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. *Kate Winslet, The Reader
3. *Viola Davis, Doubt
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. *Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Here's another lineup I like, but I'm a little worried about Tomei at the bottom. She could get bumped for Amy Adams, but I'm just going to stick with Marisa for now. This looks like a race between Cruz and Winslet. One of the more interesting things to watch is how Winslet plays the Oscars this year with possibly two nominations.

Film With the Most Nominations:
Button will probably lead the pack, but will it really matter?  I see it getting 11 nominations (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Score, Makeup, and Visual Effects).  Slumdog should not be too far behind with eight (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Score, and Song).

Final Thoughts:
Once nominations have been announced, I'll actually look at these races with some intelligent analysis. I have a problem getting into a race when the field has not even been set. I mean you can't really talk about the Super Bowl or World Series without knowing the teams. Well, same thing for the Oscars. The plan would be to really dig into this stuff tomorrow and over the weekend.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009