I know I did an Oscar update yesterday, but in the last 24 hours I have been meditating and trying to figure this race out. I'm serious. I'm currently unemployed and got nothing else to do. Anyway, I have broken down the categories by confidence: very confident, somewhat confident, not confident at all.
I have also listed quick reasons why I'm not very confident in all the races. Enjoy.
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
Best Art Direction: Benjamin Button
Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Best Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Makeup: Benjamin Button
Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Visual Effects: Benjamin Button
Best Original Screenplay: Milk
I'm still worried about WALL-E.
Best Costume Design: The Duchess
I question whether the Academy will give this award to yet another mediocre film. Also, I think Button can win this.
Best Original Song: Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire
Could Slumdog's songs split? Also, people do like WALL-E and respect Thomas Newman.
NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
His performance is better, but Rourke's story may be too good to pass up. Penn also won fairly recently ('03 for Mystic River). Basically, Rourke scares the hell out of me.
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
None of these actresses won any precursors. No one really knows anything about this race.
Best Foreign Language Film: The Class (for today, probably change again tomorrow)
I'm thinking a similar situation to when Pan's lost. I think Waltz could lose. If so, will it be The Class or Departures? Or maybe one of the other nominees.
Best Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire (switched my pick today)
Can Slumdog really sweep? This category will be easier to win than Sound Editing, Knight and WALL-E are much stronger sound films.
Best Sound Editing: Slumdog Millionaire (switched my pick today)
It feels like these two sound categories will go to the same film. Again, Knight and WALL-E are better options. Slumdog just feels like it's going to go 9/10.
Best Documentary Short Subject: The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
These shorts are a pain in the ass. Conscience could very well take this. Hell, the other two nominees could also win. May change pick.
Best Animated Short Film: Presto
It's Pixar, but they may go in a different direction to spread some of the love. Regardless, I highly doubt I'm going to change this pick.
Best Live Action Short Film: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Again, I hate the shorts (I think everyone does). Don't think I'll change my pick, but could easily get this wrong.