The ONLY Oscar Blogger, who lives in walking distance to the Kodak Theater!

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Five Years of Oscar Stats

This past Oscars was my fifth year really predicting the show. At least it was my fifth year with records of what I picked. I thought it would be fun to take a quick look back at the last five years. Highlight both the good and the bad.

I'm actually in the process of creating an Oscar Archive with picks and analysis I've done over the years. I hope to have it done in the next couple months. I'm not rushing it as my goal is to simply have it done by the start of the next awards season, which is really in the fall.

In the meantime, here's some lists of my proudest and dumbest picks.

Top 5 Proudest Picks
1. It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp (2005 - Best Original Song)
Everyone said Bird York's song in Crash would take it. I took a huge gamble and it's still my proudest Oscar pick. It actually may never be topped. I still can't believe the Academy voted for it.

2. Departures (2008 - Best Foreign Language Film)
Waltz with Bashir or The Class? No, it was Departures. I went with my gut on this after really looking at the nominees. Another huge gamble that paid off for my record setting night.

3. I Need to Wake Up (2006 - Best Original Song)
What Dreamgirls song will win? None. I was confident in the Dreamgirls split and was proven right.

4. La Maison En Petits Cubes (2008 - Best Animated Short)
These shorts are always tough, but everyone was convinced it would be Presto. Thank God I watched Presto before the Oscars and realized that it wouldn't win.

5. Alan Arkin (2006 - Best Supporting Actor)
Eddie Murphy won everything leading up to the Oscars. Then, Norbit came out. I don't know if Norbit was the main reason for this loss, but Murphy tripped up regardless. I scored a big win with Arkin.

Top 5 Dumbest Picks
1. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (2007 - Best Cinematography)
I picked Blood for almost the whole season and decided to change to this. Blood won and I'm an idiot.

2. Babel (2006 - Best Picture)
The big question of 2006 was will it be Babel or The Departed? I chose Babel and paid for it. I really don't know why either. I think Babel is a mediocre film. I was just nervous that Departed was too dark. I was wrong.

3. Babel (2006 - Best Editing)
Please see above.

4. Ruby Dee (2007 - Best Supporting Actress)
This was a tough race. Dee did win the SAG, but I had little confidence in here. I simply didn't buy Swinton not winning any major precursors and taking this. Again, I was wrong as Swinton won.

5. Cars (2006 - Best Animated Feature)
I actually liked Happy Feet in this race, but I figured Pixar would win. They almost always do. Well, this is one of the few times Pixar lost.

Top 5 Surprising Picks I Got Wrong
1. Brokeback Mountain (2005 - Best Picture)
Do I even need to explain?

2. Children of Men (2006 - Best Cinematography)
This film was easily the best shot of the year. Those long track shots were stunning. I'm still not sure why it lost.  Was it too good that people voted against it just to spite Lubezki?

3. Pan's Labyrinth (2006 - Best Foreign Language Film)
In hindsight it makes a little sense that it lost to Lives of Others, but very few people actually saw it coming.

4. There Will Be Blood (2007 - Best Art Direction)
It seemed like Blood was going to take a couple Oscars home. I thought Jack Fisk was going to pull it off, but the Academy chose a more conventional art direction in Sweeney Todd.

5. No End in Sight (2007 - Best Documentary)
Everyone had this film winning and it lost to Taxi on the Dark Side. I think the Academy may have been getting sick of the political docs.

2008 22-2*
2007 15-9
2006 18-6
2005 21-3
2004 18-6
* Record

Best Director 5-0
Best Actor 5-0
Best Supporting Actor 5-0
Best Original Screenplay 5-0
Best Adapted Screenplay 5-0
Best Original Score 5-0
Best Short - Live Action 5-0

Best Actress 4-1
Best Supporting Actress 4-1
Best Animated Feature 4-1
Best Art Direction 4-1
Best Costume Design 4-1
Best Film Editing 4-1
Best Foreign Language Film 4-1
Best Makeup 4-1
Best Original Song 4-1
Best Short - Animated 4-1
Best Visual Effects 4-1

Best Picture 3-2
Best Documentary - Feature 3-2
Best Sound Editing 3-2

Best Cinematography 2-3
Best Documentary - Short Subject 2-3
Best Sound Mixing 2-3

No comments: