The ONLY Oscar Blogger, who lives in walking distance to the Kodak Theater!

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Final Oscar Predictions

Final predictions are always tough. Some people think this is an easy year. I tend to disagree as there are still some races that really no one knows who they will go down. Best Actor? Best Supporting Actress? Sound Mixing? Sound Editing? Foreign Language Film? Of course the shorts. That's eight tough categories. Then, you have to figure the Academy may throw a curveball in another category.

The Best Actor race is the best Oscar race I've ever witnessed. I talked about more at length the other day. I personally feel like it deserves to be the last award of the night. The race is that good.

For the second straight year the Supporting Actress race is completely up in the air. While there seems to be a frontrunner, Penelope Cruz, I wouldn't call her a very strong one.

I actually can't remember a year when picking sound was so difficult. I even look at my Oscar contest. Everyone is all over the place. The most common trend is a combination of Dark Knight, Slumdog, and WALL-E. Will there be a sweep for one film or will there be a split?

Most people assume Waltz with Bashir will run away with Foreign Language, but this could be another case of when people simply jump on the bandwagon without closely looking at the race. Don't be surprised if it loses tomorrow that's all I'm saying.

As for the shorts, I really look at Best Short Documentary, which is another case of everyone following the leader with Witness. It's a dangerous trap when predicting Oscars and one that could be the difference from winning your Oscar pool to losing it. Make educated choices is when people need to do. I even look at Animated Short. Another case where a clear frontrunner looks vulnerable. Again, following the leader without thoroughly analyzing the race.

Predicting the Oscars obviously requires some luck. Though, like March Madness, it also requires some knowledge of the history of the show and the nominees. I hope some people read my blog this year. Or if not mine, then hopefully another respected Oscar pundit. It's fun to do this. That's the only reason I do it because I'll tell you right now that I haven't made one cent blogging.

I'll have my top 10 later today as well as other random Oscar posts that feel relevant the day before the show. Then, tomorrow is Oscar day. I'll be her at 9:00 a.m. ready to go until late into the night. Yes, I am doing an all day live blog. I'm that intense. I suggest you at least stop by once.

As for now, let's take a look at my final predictions or as I like to call them my perfect ballot. I'm going the distance this year and ready to break my record of 21 out of 24. Good luck, ladies and gentlemen.

Best Picture
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: Milk
Who I Want to Win: Anything, but Slumdog Millionaire
Thoughts: Hate on me all you want and/or call me an elitist, but I'm sick of Slumdog. It's overrated and I'm confident it will be considered one of the weakest Best Pictures in history. It's a fun and feel good film for sure, but after watching this film three times I still don't see why people love it so much. Especially considering that this film has had the greatest awards run in history. I am pulling for any upset tomorrow (even The Reader). I still think Milk is the class of this group.

Best Director
Who Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: Gus Van Sant, Milk
Who I Want to Win: Gus Van Sant, Milk
Thoughts: It's hard not to like Danny Boyle. He's had a great career and won the DGA. I still would like to see Van Sant win for a film that is packed with a lot of heart and passion.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Sean Penn, Milk
Who Should Win: Sean Penn, Milk
Who I Want to Win: Sean Penn, Milk
Thoughts: Both Penn and Rourke are equally deserving, but I still give the edge to Penn. Save for DDL in Blood, this is probably the best performance I've seen this decade.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Who I Want to Win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Thoughts: This is Kate's year, but Anne Hathaway was amazing and more deserving.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Who I Want to Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Thoughts: It's truly phenomenal how much this industry is behind Ledger. He deserves it and this should be an emotional moment. What could have been...

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Who Should Win: Viola Davis, Doubt
Who I Want to Win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Thoughts: I guarantee you the older voters of the Academy voted for Penelope as soon as they watched the scene of her kissing Scarlett in the black room. That should be enough to lead her to victory. Seriously though, Viola Davis deserves this solely for that scene with Meryl Streep. That was intense.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Milk
Who Should Win: Milk
Who I Want to Win: Milk
Thoughts: Hollywood has been trying to make a movie about Milk for years. No one could write a good enough script and it was in development hell. Dustin Lance Black came through. WALL-E could upset, but I don't see an animation winning here.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who I Want to Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Thoughts: Slumdog should easily win this. This is one of the few categories I don't have a problem with this film winning.

Best Animated Feature
Who Will Win: WALL-E
Who Should Win: WALL-E
Who I Want to Win: WALL-E
Thoughts: Every Pixar film gets better and better. The other two animations are fun movies, but aren't nearly as good.

Best Art Direction
Who Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who I Want to Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Thoughts: The competition is weak and Button is a marvel to look at. This should be easy.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: The Dark Knight
Who I Want to Win: The Dark Knight
Thoughts: It would be nice for Deakins to finally win, but it sadly won't be this year. Slumdog is the favorite and should pull this off. It would be nice to give this to Wally Pfister for his stunning IMAX work on The Dark Knight.

Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: The Duchess
Who Should Win: The Duchess
Who I Want to Win: Revolutionary Road
Thoughts: Button could sneak in to win this, but the Academy recently has liked to give this Oscar to a mediocre period film. Look at the last couple years with Memoirs, Marie Antoinette, and Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

Best Documentary - Feature
Who Will Win: Man on Wire
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: Everyone loves Man on Wire. Just remember only a small portion of the Academy votes on this, which explains upsets in this category. Though it seems like it should still pull through. I don't see a solid alternative.

Best Documentary - Short
Who Will Win: The Conscience of Nhem En
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: Everyone is picking Witness, but I feel like it's a trap. Going purely off subject material is risky. I heard Conscience is a great, so I'm going with it.

Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: The Dark Knight
Who I Want to Win: The Dark Knight
Thoughts: Best Picture and Best Editing tend to match up. They could go with a more action flick like last year, but I don't see The Dark Knight knocking off Slumdog.

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: Departures
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: I don't see Waltz winning this. I just don't. No one is going to believe me when I say that I had a dream about The Class winning this Oscar. At first I thought it was a sign from the Oscar god. Now, I'm starting to believe it was a trick on my mind (I read an article about The Class shortly before falling asleep). It would make a great story, but I think actually Departures is going to play real spoiler (quietly gaining steam). This is basically my crazy pick of the year. Let's hope I'm right.

Best Makeup
Who Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who Should Win: Hellboy 2
Who I Want to Win: The Dark Knight
Thoughts: I can't see the Academy going with Hellboy or Dark Knight. The makeup isn't amazing in Button, but should be good enough to win against this competition.

Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: WALL-E
Who I Want to Win: Milk
Thoughts: This should be an easier category for Slumdog to win. I would prefer either Danny Elfman (Milk) or Thomas Newman (WALL-E) since they are both long overdue.

Best Original Song
Who Will Win: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: "Down to Earth", WALL-E
Who I Want to Win: "Down to Earth", WALL-E
Thoughts: I would prefer to give this Oscar to Peter Gabriel and Newman, but expect Slumdog to squeeze this out. Unlike the last couple years with multiple nominees here, they have been pushing hard for this song. A split vote looks unlikely.

Best Short - Animated
Who Will Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: I watched Presto last night and it just didn't strike me as an Oscar winner. I also take into account that Pixar hasn't won in this category since 2001 (a Pixar short is nominated almost every year). I could have completely screwed myself here with the late change, but I have this gut feeling especially after top Oscar pundits Tom O'Neil, Kris Tapley, and Anne Thompson have all jumped on Cubes winning.

Best Short - Live Action
Who Will Win: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: This film is about the Holocaust and everyone seems to think it will win. Whether it will or not is another story. I don't feel comfortable with the other nominees either, so this feels like a safe choice.

Best Sound Mixing
Who Will Win: The Dark Knight
Who Should Win: The Dark Knight
Who I Want to Win: The Dark Knight
Thoughts: Slumdog won the CAS. The CAS is horrible at predicting the Oscars. This tends to go to the loudest picture. That is definitely The Dark Knight. WALL-E could play spoiler or even Slumdog, but I'm sticking with The Dark Knight.

Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: WALL-E
Who Should Win: WALL-E
Who I Want to Win: WALL-E
Thoughts: Sound is so important in this film. The Incredibles (another Pixar animation) won this a couple years ago against the likes of Spider-Man 2 and The Polar Express. WALL-E is even better than that film. This could go to Knight, but I'm pulling for a split in sound.

Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who I Want to Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Thoughts: Button had some groundbreaking visual effects this year. Plus, this film has to win at least a couple awards. I don't buy it getting shut out.

*I do reserve the right to change any of these predictions. If that happens, I will notify you through this blog.

For more in depth analysis, refer to older blog posts. You can click on the Oscars label below as I have archived all posts about the Oscars.

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