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Wednesday, January 21, 2009

The Night Before Oscar Nominations

I know, I know. Honestly though, when very few or should I say if anyone reads this blog, I apologize for the lack of updates. Taking care of some personal issues at the moment that could make 2009 a very life changing year for me.

I did want to quickly share some quick thoughts on the major six categories as tomorrow at 5:00 a.m., nominations will be announced. I know that the ranking system really doesn't matter for tomorrow, but I am simply ranking the films on strength of getting a nomination.

So without further ado, here are my final nomination predictions...



Note: * means I've seen the film.



Picture
1. *Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

3. *Milk
4. *Frost/Nixon

5. *The Dark Knight


It's not my favorite film of the year and I can honestly see this film being forgotten in 10 years, but Slumdog is real strong right now. 2009 is a year of hope and this film personifies that.

I still need to see Button, but it probably has the best chance to knock Slumdog out. This is another reason why Slumdog is so strong. It has a lot to do with weak competition.

Milk and Frost/Nixon seem to be along for the ride. I actually enjoyed both these films over Slumdog, but what do I know?

This last spot is going to The Dark Knight. Revolutionary is dead. Torino is too weak. The Wrestler just doesn't have the support. Oh, and I simply just don't buy WALL-E sneaking in.  Plus, the Oscars needs The Dark Knight. I guarantee more nominations for this film will boast ratings. Hell, the film made half a billion dollars.

It knows how to attract an audience.

Director
1. *Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. *Gus Van Sant, Milk
4. *Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
5. *Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

These five got nominated for the DGA. I feel really good about them all getting the Oscar nod. Maybe Clint sneaks in, but I don't see it. Regardless, Boyle controls this race.

Actor
1. *Sean Penn, Milk

2. *Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. *Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
4. *Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

This is a two man race between Penn and Rourke. Those are locks. The bigger question now is who will join them? I like Langella a lot. He should be safe. Clint is loved by the Academy, so that is why I like him. The last spot I'm going with Leo. This could not happening depending on Road's support. Otherwise, I look to either Pitt or Jenkins.


Actress

1. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

2. *Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. *Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4. Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Kate and Meryl are looking pretty right now. Anne is also looking good, but I see her playing second fiddle to the two more well established actresses. Cate is no where as strong as she was a couple months ago, but she should still rack up another nomination. Though, I don't see her really figuring in on this race. This last spot is real tough. I'm going with Sally. She won the Globe and I think that may give her a slight edge. Otherwise, you have to look at either Melissa Leo or Kristin Scott Thomas. It's a tough call.

Supporting Actor

1. *Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

2. *Josh Brolin, Milk

3. *Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

4. *Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

5. *Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

I feel really confident about this lineup. I've seen all the performances and they are all good in different ways. Downey Jr. is probably the most likely to get bumped, but who is really going to take his spot? Maybe James Franco or Michael Shannon. I just don't see it. The bigger question in this race is about Ledger, but I'll write about that after the official nominations have been announced.


Supporting Actress

1. *Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. *Kate Winslet, The Reader
3. *Viola Davis, Doubt
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. *Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Here's another lineup I like, but I'm a little worried about Tomei at the bottom. She could get bumped for Amy Adams, but I'm just going to stick with Marisa for now. This looks like a race between Cruz and Winslet. One of the more interesting things to watch is how Winslet plays the Oscars this year with possibly two nominations.

Film With the Most Nominations:
Button will probably lead the pack, but will it really matter?  I see it getting 11 nominations (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Score, Makeup, and Visual Effects).  Slumdog should not be too far behind with eight (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Score, and Song).

Final Thoughts:
Once nominations have been announced, I'll actually look at these races with some intelligent analysis. I have a problem getting into a race when the field has not even been set. I mean you can't really talk about the Super Bowl or World Series without knowing the teams. Well, same thing for the Oscars. The plan would be to really dig into this stuff tomorrow and over the weekend.

2 comments:

Fletch said...

Our picks are remarkably similar, though I don't think Button is nearly as strong overall as you. The competition for Best Pic is surely weaker than some years, but it would be ridiculous for Button to win; even moreso than a Slumdog win would be.

Mikey Filmmaker said...

Well, Button led, but it will probably not go home with the most awards. Still need to see Button, but that is what I'm hearing. I guess not every year can have films like There Will Be Blood and No Country.