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Monday, October 20, 2008

Oscar Update: Best Picture Predix

I was just taking a peak at my very early predictions for this year's upcoming Oscars. Here they are if you forget:

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
The Soloist


Best Picture: Revolutionary Road

Of course this list doesn't really work anymore.  The Soloist is actually getting pushed to 2009, so that throws that out.  I'm also abandoning Changeling.

I'm actually hearing a lot of good things about TFF (Toronto Film Festival) film, Slumdog Millionaire.  Though, that right now is on the outside looking in along with Australia and Doubt.

Though, I've jumped on The Dark Knight bandwagon.  The other new addition is Milk, which I'm surprised I didn't pick back in February.

Here's my revised list:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road


Best Picture: Revolutionary Road

The majority of these predictions are on pure speculation of course, but I still think Road is the film to beat.  Anytime I see a film directed by Sam Mendes, produced by Scott Rudin, and starring Leo and Kate, then that looks like a Best Picture frontrunner.  Anyone agree?

The Dark Knight is a tough pick.  The serious contenders are still not released (which gives it an early advantage) and the box office this film racked up was unbelievable.  I actually still can't believe it did as well as it did.  Another reason is that I simply don't foresee this year being like the last, which in my opinion had one of the best, Best Picture nominees in recent memory.  Basically, it's a year when a film like this could possibly sneak in.

I also am exciting and intrigued by Button and Milk equally.  Both trailers make me excited in more ways than one.  One plot is very unique and the other very relevant.  Both directed by heavyweights, David Fincher and Gus Van Sant, respectively.  Both starring heavyweights, Brad Pitt and Sean Penn, respectively.  If you can't tell, I like both these films' chances a lot.

Frost/Nixon, while it seems like a strong film, I wouldn't be surprised if it fails expectations.  I'm not that convinced by its power at all.  I don't think the box office will be strong and the cast is not necessarily A-list.  Though it does have Ron Howard and screenwriter, Peter Morgan, behind it.

Keep checking back for more thoughts.

1 comment:

Fletch said...

I'd probably be terrible at picking the 5 way in advance, but I'm probably good at critiquing others' choices. ;)

Rev Road seems too obvious, and it's not as though Mendes recent track record is all that stellar. I don't think it will even be nominated.

Milk, I agree with. If it's half as good as the trailer, it will win 20 awards.

Though Ben Button has been my most anticipated film for some time, I think it will be seen as too "out there" for most folks and probably won't get a nom, though it's a likely lock for a screenplay win.

Frost/Nixon seems like a safe bet. Solid talent up and down, and the kind of topic and drama that the Academy eats the crap out of.

TDK seems like a safe bet for a nod, but that's it.

And Changeling probably will be one of the five if it's any good. Though a one-star cast will hurt it. (Yeah, Malkotraz is in it, but it doesn't seem like his part is all that big.)

Thems be my thoughts.