Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
Which of these lovely ladies will win on Sunday? Julie Christie has been the frontrunner for a while, but she is vulnerable. Marion Cotillard and Ellen Page are creeping up and that's where this race stands. It's a three way battle.
Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth: The Golden Age is having a great year. She's a double nominee, but most people seem to agree that she is in much better position to win Best Supporting Actress. I liked her in this film. She plays Queen Elizabeth I well, but I just don't see her winning for this role. She hasn't won any precursors and it would be a huge upset if she won here.
Julie Christie for Away from Her is the frontrunner. She won the Golden Globe, SAG, and numerous critics' awards. Although, I will be the first person to tell you it's not the best performance of the year. She lacks the screen time of Cotillard or Page. Her performance also doesn't have the range of Cotillard's, but it's real. She plays a victim of Alzheimer's disease and I think she does a great job especially during her interactions with her husband later in the film. Julie also has to work her name and reputation. I think that alone should carry her over. She won an Oscar for Darling back in 1965 and with a win I believe she sets a record of years between wins.
Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose gave a thrilling performance as Edith Piaf. The problem is will members of the Academy watch it? That worries me. Way back at the beginning of the award season, Cotillard seemed like the frontrunner. She has won some precursors such as the BAFTA, Globe, and a couple critics' awards. If the members can get over the subtitles, I think they will be very impressed at her performance. It covers a period of close to forty years and it full of emotion that is unmatched this year. I love that scene where she breaks down and continuously screams, "Marcel!" It's an Oscar moment.
Laura Linney for The Savages is like the dark horse in this race. I love Linney as an actress, but she just can't compete with these other women. She has been nominated twice before ('00 and '04 Best Actress and Supporting Actress respectively), but I expect her to leave 0/3.
Ellen Page for Juno is the most interesting nominee. A lot of people like her in this race. I liked her performance. It's cute and charming. I just don't think she can beat Christie and Cotillard. A couple other things worry me. She's a young actress and her role wasn't as challenging as her fellow nominees. She could win this race if Juno has phenomenal support.
So how will this three way race end? Depends who you talk to, really. It's hard not to like Christie, but she is not a lock. Cotillard and Page are serious threats.