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Saturday, February 2, 2008

Looking at the PGA Awards

The PGA Awards are tonight. You know, the Producers Guild of America. Not the Professional Golf Association. I know it gets confusing, but this PGA is about movies. Like the DGA awards, it will be a non-televised event, so the results will probably be leaked online sometime later tonight. Who will win? Well, let's take a look.

The Nominees:
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood


Thoughts:
The PGA has gone 3/7 this decade predicting the Best Picture. It's also 0/3 in the last three years. It agreed in 2000, 2002, and 2003. So, like the SAG ensemble, it is batting a little under .500.

First and foremost, you have to like No Country. It's hard right now not to pick the film unless it starts to lose. Last year the PGA went with Little Miss Sunshine. Could that could a good sign for Juno? Maybe, but if you look at this decade most of the films have been larger pictures. You have two musicals and two epics. Then, the other film was Brokeback, which was winning everything.

That's the hard part about the PGA is they don't have one type of film they love. I would be very surprised though if they honor a film like Michael Clayton or Diving Bell. Clayton has been in the picture all season, but has never really been a factor. Why should tonight be any different? Diving Bell is an amazing film, but the language barrier worries me a little too much.

Then, there is There Will Be Blood. If this film is going to have any shot of an upset on February 24th, it NEEDS to win tonight. If not, then you might as well push ALL IN on No Country. With a win at the WGA next weekend looking very likely (especially since results may have been leaked), the momentum will be too strong for it to lose. The PGA is the last hope for any of the Best Picture films to make some noise, be heard, and hopefully get some votes. The feeling could be that people might get "sick" of No Country winning and switch their allegiance to another film.

Prediction: No Country for Old Men
Possible Spoiler: There Will Be Blood

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