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Monday, February 25, 2008

Looking at the Losses

With the Oscars over, it's time to start looking at where I went wrong last night. As I've stated on this blog before, I never have gotten less than 17 correct from when I seriously started to predict awards back in 2003. Scores of 18, 18, 21, and 17 came out the last four years. This year was 15 and let's hope it's a fluke. Anyway, here's a quick look at my nine losses.

1. Visual Effects
This was a huge surprise for me and as soon as it happened, I realized that Transformers was screwed to win any Oscars. This was the easiest category for it to win and it failed. My best guess is the Academy probably didn't want to watch it or give it any Oscars.

2. Sound Editing
As with Visual Effects, another surprise as I figured this would have been the easier sound category to win. This award is given to sound design and this film is so loud. Bourne was the easy alternative, but still surprised it happened. Again, I believe it had to do with the fact that the Academy just refused to give it to a film like Transformers.

3. Sound Mixing
Poor Kevin O'Connell and Greg Russell. I really think they will win this category. When? Don't have any idea. They just need to work on a film that is more critically accepted. I almost guarantee they will win if they do that. The hatred of Transformers was very evident after this loss and the film went from being the favorite in three categories to the loser in three categories.

4. Documentary
Don't have anything to really add to this. Everyone was talking No End in Sight all the way and Taxi to the Dark Side snuck in. It seems like every year, the Academy throws a curveball like that. A category that no one talks about since it is "locked" ends up giving one of the big upsets of the night.

5. Costume Design
Second straight year this has happened. Arguably third if you want to put Memoirs of a Geisha in this club, but most people thought that would win. Of course, I'm referring to the fact that this is the second straight year a mediocre film has won this category. Yeah, the costumes were great, but few people dared to pick it. What I took from this was that you really have to start looking at this category differently. The film doesn't matter, just the costumes do.

6. Cinematography
This was the dumbest pick of the night (or maybe ever) for me and I knew I should have just stuck with my man, Robert Elswit. I had Elswit winning this for a while, then I changed my pick a couple weeks ago. I was very happy for him, but I was just mad at myself. Of course, I went with Janusz Kaminski, which wasn't completely out of left field, but it probably didn't make a lot of sense either. Well, there's nothing I can do to change it, so I'll live. I think.

7. Art Direction
This was maybe the most annoying decision next to Sound Mixing. The Academy gives Dante Ferretti another Oscar. Nothing against him, but why? With that loss for Fisk, I knew there was no chance that Blood would win anything major. I was actually surprised Elswit managed to win Best Cinematography.

8. Supporting Actress
I knew I should have switched to Tilda. I just didn't want to believe that she was going to win. It all made sense after she won, why it all happened? Doesn't it always? No one saw Blanchett's performance. Dee's performance was forgettable. Ronan was too young. Ryan hasn't earned her due. Swinton is a veteran, has the screen time, and her performance is damn good. Why didn't I see that in the first place?

9. Actress
I was so happy for Marion and like Supporting, I just didn't have the guts to change my pick at the last minute. This annoys me, but I didn't think she would be able to actually win. I guess I was wrong about the Academy. They actually watched this movie or they just read somewhere that she was better than Julie. Either way, they gave it to the right person, it's just too bad that I failed to pick it.

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