The ONLY Oscar Blogger, who lives in walking distance to the Kodak Theater!

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Final Oscar Predictions

After months of blogging, here it is. My final Oscar predictions. Where did all the time go? I remember when Atonement was the film to beat. Or how There Will Be Blood would never get nominated for Best Picture. Or Charlie Wilson's War and Sweeney Todd being serious threats to win all the awards. I guess that's why we have the award season. It's just always funny to see how some films die and others flourish.

I'll do more of a retrospect after the Oscars, but this was a hell of a season to cover. Considering this was my first attempt to blog the Oscars, it was a memorable one. Most importantly, I hope people took some things from my "analysis" both good and bad.

Remember to stop by on Sunday. I will be live blogging and it would be great to have a couple people checking in. It should be an exciting day as always.

As I've done for the past three years, I post who will win, who should win, and who I want to win. Enjoy!

Best Picture
Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: There Will Be Blood
Who I Want to Win: There Will Be Blood
Thoughts: No Country was an amazing film and there's no reason to pick against it now. Still, the best film of 2007 was There Will Be Blood. Very few, if any other filmmakers today would ever think of making such a film and that's why I think you have to respect its greatness.

Best Director
Who Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Who I Want to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Thoughts: As much as I love P.T. Anderson, I think Julian Schnabel deserves this Oscar more than anyone. His directing was the most challenging and breathtaking. Who ever said directing had to be epic to be the best? Although, the Coens look to be in control of this race.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Who I Want to Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Thoughts: It's the performance of the decade.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Who Should Win: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Who I Want to Win: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Thoughts: Julie may win on Sunday, but people will remember Marion's performance years down the road. I know I will.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Who I Want to Win: Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Thoughts: People seem to underestimate Casey Affleck's performance in this film. Too bad more people didn't see it because I found it to be superior to Bardem's. Although, let's face it. Javier is a lock. As much as I would love to see Hal Holbrook pull it off, I don't see it happening.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Who I Want to Win: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Thoughts: Ruby Dee is going to win on a long career. Her performance wasn't horrible, but it wasn't Oscar worthy either. I think Cate's role was the most difficult and challenging, but she just won this three years ago. She really captured Dylan well in the Don't Look Back era. I would love to see Amy Ryan win for her crack addict mother role. And, Tilda Swinton scares the hell out of me in this race and I don't know why. It's a toss up, but I'm sticking with Ruby.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Juno
Who Should Win: Juno
Who I Want to Win: Juno
Thoughts: I didn't like Michael Clayton that much, so this is an easy choice for me. Juno should squeeze out the victory.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Who I Want to Win: There Will Be Blood
Thoughts: Like Best Director, I really think Diving Bell was the most challenging adaptation. It's a movie about a stroke victim who can only move his left eye. Yet, it's an amazing piece of work. I would love to see Anderson win only because I think Blood is such an accomplishment, but expect the Coens to win this category.

Best Animated Feature
Who Will Win: Ratatouille
Who Should Win: Ratatouille
Who I Want to Win: Ratatouille
Thoughts: Granted I didn't get to see Persepolis, I can't see Brad Bird losing this race. Ratatouille is not just a great animation, it's a great film.

Best Art Direction
Who Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Who Should Win: There Will Be Blood
Who I Want to Win: There Will Be Blood
Thoughts: Jack Fisk's stunning recreation in Blood has to be rewarded. The Oscars doesn't always award the most flashy or elaborate art direction.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Who Should Win: The Assassination of Jesse James...
Who I Want to Win: There Will Be Blood
Thoughts: Deakins had the best culmative year, but let's face it. No one saw Jesse James (unfortunately). If you look at films individually, Blood is the favorite due to the ASC win. I just don't know if will win. Remember last year and the fact that the ASC and Oscars rarely match up. Watch out for Diving Bell. Risky pick maybe, but I just have this feeling it will upset.

Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: Atonement
Who Should Win: Atonement
Who I Want to Win: Atonement
Thoughts: As with Art Direction, the Oscars don't always award the most flashy and elaborate costume design. That stunning dress that Keira Knightley wears should be enough for it to win.

Best Documentary - Feature
Who Will Win: No End in Sight
Who Should Win: No End in Sight
Who I Want to Win: Sicko
Thoughts: No End in Sight seems to be the favorite among the Iraq war films. I only want Sicko to win, so I can listen to another Michael Moore tirade at the Oscars.

Best Documentary - Short
Who Will Win: Freeheld
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: There seems to be a consensus of Oscar bloggers and "experts" that this is the film to beat.

Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Who Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Who I Want to Win: There Will Be Blood
Thoughts: Best Picture doesn't NEED Best Editing. This year will be one of those examples. I can't see the Coens winning four awards. I don't think Dylan Tichenor did an amazing job on Blood, but he is someone I have followed for years and would love to see him get recognition. I'm going with Bourne after the ACE win.

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: The Counterfeiters
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: Everyone seems to like The Counterfeiters. I have to admit, it has a cool name.

Best Makeup
Who Will Win: La Vie en Rose
Who Should Win: La Vie en Rose
Who I Want to Win: La Vie en Rose
Thoughts: The way the makeup artists changed Marion Cotillard through the years was amazing and realistic. It's not as flashy as Pirates, but flashy doesn't always win this award.

Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Atonement
Who Should Win: Atonement
Who I Want to Win: Atonement
Thoughts: Out of all the nominees, I think this score is the best done. It's epic and moving. I think it complements the film well and Atonement deserves to win something.

Best Original Song
Who Will Win: "Falling Slowly", Once
Who Should Win: "Falling Slowly", Once
Who I Want to Win: "Falling Slowly", Once
Thoughts: I love the music in Once and I love this song. Easily the most moving song this past year. It deserves this Oscar.

Best Short - Animated
Who Will Win: Peter & the Wolf
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: I Met the Walrus
Thoughts: Haven't seen any of the films, but I have to pull for the one based on a John Lennon interview back in 1969. I just don't know if it will win. Seems like Peter & the Wolf is the film to beat.

Best Short - Live Action
Who Will Win: The Mozart of Pickpockets
Who Should Win: N/A
Who I Want to Win: No Preference
Thoughts: I like this film or The Substitute. I'm just going with this film on a gut feeling.

Best Sound Mixing
Who Will Win: Transformers
Who Should Win: Transformers
Who I Want to Win: Transformers
Thoughts: Kevin O'Connell and Greg Russell deserve Oscars. No one should go 0/20 or 0/12. I hope the Academy takes notice and awards them. As for the film, it is an incredible mix.

Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Transformers
Who Should Win: Transformers
Who I Want to Win: Transformers
Thoughts: The sound design on this film was top notch. I just have to give the edge of the sound categories to Transformers. It was not just your typical blockbuster.

Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Transformers
Who Should Win: Transformers
Who I Want to Win: Transformers
Thoughts: That huge battle at the end of the movie was amazing. Michael Bay is an director you want to hate, but you have to love some of the visual effects in his films. This movie is no different.

*I do reserve the right to change any of these predictions. If that happens, I will notify you through this blog.

For more in depth analysis, refer to older blog posts. You can click on the Oscars label below as I have archived all posts about the Oscars.

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