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Saturday, January 12, 2008

Updated Oscar Forecast

I’m still waiting for nominations to be announced before I start working off the Oscar page, but I am continuing to make predictions on where the best picture race looks like. I’ve also added in this post my projected frontrunners for the other major races. Remember to check out Awards Invasion for the latest analysis on the awards season.

Updated Oscar Best Picture 1/12
The Nominees:
1. (1) No Country for Old Men

2. (3) There Will Be Blood

3. (7) Juno
4. (4) Michael Clayton

5. (6) Into the Wild
On the Bubble:
6. (8) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
7. (2) Atonement
8. (5) Sweeney Todd
Looking for a Miracle:
9. (9) American Gangster
10. (10) Charlie Wilson’s War
11. (11) The Great Debaters


As you may have noticed, I’ve done a lot of moving around the chart, but it’s all for good reason (I think). This proves a good point that the awards season does not really become clear until now. The Globes are tomorrow. The guilds are announcing their nominations. We’re starting to really get a better understanding at what is for real and what is not.

Back in November we all thought that Atonement and Sweeney Todd would be battling it out for the top prize. Now it looks like a three way race (like last year) between No Country, Blood, and Juno. I’ve seen all these three films and they’re all very worthy. Still you have to give the edge to No Country until at least the Globes. If it loses, then things could change.

There’s still five other films that are battling for the final two spots (yes, I believe my top three are safe). All of these films are extremely strong, but three will be left out. I think this is just further proof that 2007 was an extremely strong year for film. I have Sweeney Todd at my eight spot right now and I honestly think this film would have won best picture last year. I guess you can take that for what it’s worth. I’ll have another chart next week and I’m sure it will change again.

Oscar nominations come out on Tuesday, January 22, 2008.

Other Major Race Frontrunners:
Best Director: Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Best Actress: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

Random Oscar Thoughts:

- Juno is proving what a film can be with a great box office performance. I had my worries about this film originally due to be labeling the next Little Miss Sunshine. Now, I actually think it’s looking great for a nomination. This is a charming film that will be easy for the Academy to embrace.
- Speaking of the box office, There Will Be Blood, pulled in an incredible per screen average for two theaters after opening. It’s close to 100k ($95,370 per screen). It’s amazing how movies rely on buzz so much. With all the “milkshake” craze, it will be interesting to see what happens when this film expands even more and if continues to build Oscar momentum.
- If you want a good forecast of the best picture race, look no further than the DGA awards. Their nominees have matched the Oscar best picture nominees an incredible 24/25 from 2002-2006. Their one miss was Dreamgirls. That would make you think that Juno, Atonement, and Sweeney Todd are toast, but if I’ve learned anything over the years covering awards, it’s history or stats don’t mean anything.

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