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Monday, January 14, 2008

Reaction to PGA Noms

PGA nominations were announced today. And surprise, surprise, no Atonement or Sweeney Todd (As much as I respect Tom O’Neil, the guy hasn’t posted a blog entry today after last night saying how he was right about Sweeney). Further making my point that the Globes probably don’t hold that much weight this year to the Oscars. Follow the guilds and you’ll be in much better shape.

Kris Tapley over at In Contention, has been doing a great job at compiling the list of the guild nominations for each film. (source: HERE)

8 guild mentions:

"No Country for Old Men" -- ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, DGA, PGA, SAG (3), WGA

7 guild mentions:

"There Will Be Blood" -- ACE, ADG, ASC, DGA, PGA, SAG (1), WGA

6 guild mentions:

"Michael Clayton" -- ACE, ADG, DGA, PGA, SAG (3), WGA

5 guild mentions:

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" -- ASC, ADG, DGA, PGA, WGA (also AMPAS makeup bake-off finalist)

"Into the Wild" -- ACE, CAS, DGA, SAG (4), WGA

4 guild mentions:

"Juno" -- ACE, PGA, SAG (1), WGA

3 guild mentions:

"300" -- ADG, CAS, VES (1) (also AMPAS makeup and visual effects bake-off finalist)

"The Bourne Ultimatum" -- ACE, ADG, CAS (also AMPAS visual effects bake-off finalst)

"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" -- ADG, ACE, VES (6) (also AMPAS makeup and visual effects bake-off finalist)
"Ratatouille" -- ACE, ADG, VES (4)

"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" -- ACE, ADG, VES (1) (also AMPAS makeup bake-off finalist)

2 guild mentions:

"American Gangster" -- ADG, SAG (2)

"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" -- ASC, SAG (1)

"Atonement" -- ADG, ASC

"Elizabeth The Golden Age" -- ADG, SAG (1)

"The Golden Compass" -- ADG, VES (1) (also AMPAS visual effects bake-off finalst)

"Hairspray" -- ACE, SAG (1)

"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" -- ADG, VES (3) (also AMPAS makeup and visual effects bake-off finalist)

"Lars and the Real Girl" -- SAG (1), WGA

"Transformers" -- CAS, VES (5) (also AMPAS visual effects bake-off finalist)

"Zodiac" -- WGA, VES (2) (also nominated for USC Scripter award)

1 guild mention:

"3:10 to Yuma" -- SAG (1)

"Away from Her" -- SAG (1)

"Beowulf" -- VES (2)

"Blades of Glory" -- VES (1)

"Eastern Promises" -- SAG (1)

"Gone Baby Gone" -- SAG (1)

"Knocked Up" -- WGA

"I Am Legend" -- VES (5) (also AMPAS visual effects bake-off finalist)

"I'm Not There" -- SAG (1)

"The Kite Runner" -- ADG

"Live Free or Die Hard" -- VES (1)

"A Mighty Heart" -- SAG (1)

"The Savages" -- WGA

"Spider-Man 3" -- VES (3)

"La Vie en Rose" -- SAG (1) (also AMPAS makeup bake-off finalist)

"Shrek the Third" -- VES (2)

"Surf's Up" -- VES (4)

"The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep" -- VES (2)

"We Own the Night" -- VES (1)

Below is my reaction and analysis of the race.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax)
Juno (Fox Searchlight)
Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.)
No Country for Old Men (Miramax/Paramount Vantage)
There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage/Miramax)

The PGA lineup has gone 4/5 the last three years in regards to the Oscar best picture lineup. If this trend continues, then one of the above films will be left off. As I said yesterday, I think there’s probably a legit chance for eight films to be nominated for best picture. Another interesting point is that the PGA has not matched up with the Oscars since 2003 like the Golden Globes. They have been 3/7 this decade (Gldiator and Chicago, and Return of the King).

Last year the PGA went the Little Miss Sunshine route. Could it be that mean success for Juno? It’s possible, but I still like No Country. Last night was probably a hiccup for this film. I think we’ll start seeing the it as the frontrunner as the guild award winners are revealed.

The “steak eaters” as Harvey Weinstein likes to call them are coming.

Originally appeared at Spaghetti Sauce and Sweet Peas on 1/13/08.

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