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Monday, January 14, 2008

Impact of the Golden Globes on the Oscars

I was laughing at myself a little last night after the Golden Globes. I was an awful 7/14, but if you look at my initial predictions way back from last year (12/14/07), I would have been a much more respectable 10/14. No excuses though and as I stated last night, I’m not too worried about it. My previous track record speaks for itself and let’s face it, analyzing the awards season is tough. There’s so many award shows and they fuck with your mind. I would honestly be shocked if Atonement and Sweeney Todd magically come back into the race and are the big winners on Oscar night.

Part of me wants to drastically change the chart for best picture, but I refuse to jump the gun. To be completely honest, you could make a damn good case for the top eight films I’ve listed to get nominated. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them are in the final five.

An interesting question to ponder is when did most people send in their ballot for the Golden Globes. Let’s face it films like Juno and There Will Be Blood have been gaining momentum, but it was probably after the ballots were in. As for why No Country lost best picture, well I don’t know the answer to that. Atonement is a foreign film (British) and it’s a love epic. That’s a good combination for the Globes and why I liked it originally. I changed my prediction since it seemed like it lost all its steam. I was wrong.

Juno I think came out of last night the biggest disappointment. You know, at the beginning of the award season, I was a bit skeptical about the film. People don’t realize how difficult it was for Little Miss Sunshine to do what it did (get nominated) last year. For Juno to repeat that magic is no easy task. Is it a great film? Yes. Will not getting nominated hurt this film’s mystique? No.

I’ve been a firm believer for many years that winning an award should not dictate whether that makes it truly great. It’s like in sports if you solely rate athletes by the number of championships they won. If that was the case, then Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Dan Marino, and Patrick Ewing (to name a few) would be bums.

It really doesn’t matter who wins the best picture next month, it won’t change my opinion on what was the best film of the year. With all that said, here’s an updated list. Enjoy.

Updated Oscar Best Picture 1/14
The Nominees:
1. (1) No Country for Old Men
2. (2) There Will Be Blood
3. (4) Michael Clayton
4. (5) Into the Wild
5. (3) Juno
On the Bubble: 
6. (7) Atonement
7. (6) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
8. (8) Sweeney Todd
Looking for a Miracle:
9. (9) American Gangster
10. (-) 3:10 to Yuma
11. (10) Charlie Wilson’s War
12. (11) The Great Debaters

If I had to choice to pick which Globe winner should now be nominated, it would be Atonement. I still need to think about it a little longer before I put it back. Part of the problem is that this year is so crowded that I don’t know what would get knocked off. Hell, I don’t think there is any lock for a nomination right now. Even No Country showed some vulnerability.

I know it’s not even on this top 11 list until this chart, but I’ve even been reading some support for 3:10 to Yuma. I wouldn’t be surprised at anything right now. It’s a crapshoot.

Other Major Race Frontrunners:
Best Director: Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Best Actress: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

Random Oscar Thoughts:
- I know I’ve already said this, but the Globes are not the best indicator for the Oscars (I prefer looking at the guild awards). They have awarded the same best picture only 3/7 times this decade (Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind, and Return of the King) and none since 2003. Crash wasn’t even nominated. This could be the fourth straight year unless Atonement or Sweeney Todd wins.
- If I were a betting man, I would be willing to put my money on Daniel Day-Lewis and Javier Bardem as locks to win their respective categories. I know nominations haven’t come out yet, but have these guys lost all year? Julie Christie is also looking good, but I’m still a little afraid of Ellen Page and Marion Cotillard.

Oscar nominations come out on Tuesday, January 22, 2008.

Originally appeared at Spaghetti Sauce and Sweet Peas on 1/14/08.

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